I was a high school English teacher for five years. And before that, I was a college student. So I do know something about cramming and about burning the midnight oil, and about showing up at exam time bleary-eyed and hyped on caffeine. It wasn't a good idea then and it's certainly not a good idea now. There's just too much at stake on February 5th.

But you still have a week to prepare for the ballot unless, of course, you are one of the up to 50% of San Diego voters who could vote by mail before election day. True, this upcoming election is somewhat of a surprise to California voters since we expected our primary to be the first Tuesday in June. But because there was a race among the states to be one of the important players in deciding the political party nominees for president, California along with two dozen other states rushed to schedule early primaries and caucuses. And several special interest groups rushed to qualify their propositions for this February 5th ballot which is headed for a record voter turnout.

So whether you are registered with a party or a non partisan, you will find seven state propositions on your ballot waiting for your decision. I won't go through the language of Props 91 through 97. You can find all that plus the pro and con arguments in your sample ballot. And perhaps most useful is the analysis by the non-partisan Legislative Analyst. Of course, the well-funded campaigns are already running political ads on television, but you know that those political commercials are no way to get your unbiased information.

When you vote on Tsunami Tuesday, Feb. 5, you may think you are voting for Hillary, Barack, John, John, Mike, Mike, Rudy or Dennis.  But you’ll actually be voting for a delegate who could be your neighbor, your friend, or someone who just wants to get involved with a political party and one of the most exciting presidential races in the last 50 years.

The delegates are people who are sent to the national party conventions to cast  votes for specific candidates.  The end product is selection of their party’s nominee.  So your vote on Feb. 5 actually has to go through a filter of sorts, created by the Republican and Democratic National Committees, before it becomes the delegate’s vote.

Briefly, here’s the way it works for California Republicans who send a total of 173 delegates to the Republican National Convention.  This is the first year that Republicans have a winner- take-all system for each of the state’s 53 congressional districts.  Before, all delegates were awarded to the winner of the statewide vote.  Now, each congressional district gets three delegates and those delegates are awarded to the candidate getting the most votes within that district. So even a congressional district with relatively few Republicans (such as a Los Angeles urban area) gets the same number of delegates as a strongly Republican district (such as Rep. Darryl Issa’s North County neighborhoods).

Additionally, each candidate chooses 11 delegates to go to the convention to vote for that candidate if he wins the overall popular vote in the state.  Not finished yet.  Also at the convention are the Republican National Committeeman, the Republican National Committeewoman, and the State Party Chair. Those last three are considered unpledged delegates who are free to support any candidate at the convention.  Nationally, of the 2,380 delegates to the RNC, 463 or almost 20% are unpledged.  In effect, one in five votes cast at the RNC will not be determined by voters!

Its called Super Tuesday. Actually, some enthusiasts are calling it Super Duper Tuesday because on Tuesday, Feb. 5, 22 states will hold primaries or caucuses to determine their political parties nominees for president of the United States. Many believe that on that day, the final decision will be made and that by Wednesday morning, we will know the names to be put forth at the Republican and Democratic presidential nominating conventions during the summer.

While we voters are feeling some pressure to make up our minds on how we will vote on Super Tuesday, its the folks responsible for recording, protecting, and counting our votes who are really under pressure these days to get ready for the big day. At the head of that team is Deborah Seiler, who became the County Registrar of Voters last May amidst hot controversy over her background as a former sales representative for the company that sold electronic voting machines to the County a few years ago for $31 million. Last August, the California Secretary of State Debra Bowen decertified them, concerned that they were not secure.

Today, I asked Ms. Seiler who, in addition to her job representing electronic voting systems, served on the California Fair Political Practices Commission (1993-1997), was editor and publisher of California Elections Report, a monthly newsletter, and held several other appointed offices, about whether we can feel comfortable now that we are back to paper ballots. We also clarified some questions about whether, if you vote by mail-in ballot, and you change your mind after youve mailed in that ballot, you can rescind that vote and show up at a polling place. We talked about the countys lawsuit against the California secretary of state who wants a random sampling of ballots when the results are really, really close, and what choices non-partisan voters have in the presidential primary.

And, those exit polls we hear about the registrar has nothing to do with them. Thats strictly orchestrated by the media. But when the polls close at 8 p.m., the mail-in vote should give us some idea who the winners will be. Between now and then, you can vote by going to the registrars office, mailing in your ballot, or you can wait for the big day.

Never in a million years would I have guessed that Id want Dick Morris to be right on anything. Remember him? He was the media consultant who primarily worked for Republicans, but eerily became Bill Clintons most trusted first-term advisor. In fact, his influence over Clintons presidency was so profound that Morris was named campaign manager for his re-election bid in 1996.

But on the day that President Clinton accepted his partys nomination for a second term, Morris resigned. There were stories of scandalous liaisons with a prostitute and personal information about the Clintons that he shared with her. Later there were reports that Morris was a tax evader. Although Morris left the Clintons, he didnt disappear. Hes now an author, political commentator and columnist and revels in criticizing the Clintons, particularly Hillary.

I hadnt thought about Dick Morris in a very long time. And then, my manager suggested I read a Morris article published in the New York Post, Jan. 6, 2007. In it, Morris opines that the February 5th primaries (15 state primary elections and seven caucuses) will shake out a Democratic winner, either Clinton or Obama. But he also suggests that although the GOP will see Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee and Romney competing on that Super Tuesday, it is likely that none of them will win a majority and that the decision might have to be made at the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis the first week of September.

If you read one of my earlier commentaries, you already know that one or two contested presidential nominating conventions would fulfill my current fondest dream (and my manager knows that, too). My November 27th entry entitled Could the Conventions Get Exciting Again? postulates that this year, my dream might come true If the Iowa Caucus surprises the nation by selecting an Obama or a Huckabee

Well, Obama and Huckabee did win. And now that the New Hampshire primary has set up two additional winners, Clinton and McCain, perhaps Dick Morris could be right about a partys nominee actually being decided at the national convention. He thinks it will happen in Minneapolis and Im hoping that the Democrats in Denver will also have to choose their candidate for president. In either case, this summer could see me at the most compelling political event in 56 years.

Since this will be my last blog until the week after the holidays, its a final chance to look at that strange phenomenon called the Iowa Caucuses. The word caucus, when you say it, has a harsh sound, almost like a crows call (especially when a couple of those big, shiny, black birds have a crow conversation outside my bedroom window at sunrise when Id hoped to sleep until 8 a.m.). But it has a much softer meaning: a gathering of ruling tribal chiefs (according to its North Indian derivation) which evolved into the modern gathering of political party members. But it actually is a gathering of neighbors to select candidates. Sounds friendly, doesnt it?

Dont be fooled. Iowans take their first-in-the-nation status very, very seriously. They love making the first major decisions in the presidential election, and theyve been doing this since 1972 -- a tradition they fought hard to maintain this time around. And sometimes, the momentum which begins in Iowa sweeps a candidate into office.

From what Ive been reading and hearing about the Iowa caucuses, they are much more visceral than, lets say, the California primaries, which are rather cool, emotionless affairs. In California, the voter walks or drives to a polling place, goes through the mechanics of casting a ballot, and leaves, or spends a few minutes at the kitchen table filling out the absentee ballot, mails it, and the process is over.

In Iowa on January 3rd, groups of neighbors in Iowas 1,784 precincts will do their gathering in a local private house, school, caf or some public building. And there, the Democrats will coalesce into candidate preference groups. But thats only the beginning. From that point on, neighbors try to woo neighbors into their groups. After about a half hour, when all the switching has happened, a count is taken. If any candidates group has fewer than 15% of those at that particular caucus, that group is not counted. Do they go home feeling defeated? No way. They have another chance to be lured into a viable group and be counted. Theres something hopeful about having a second, or even third, choice. And just imagine all the excitement generated by political arguments as neighbor tries to recruit neighbor. Imagine the Obama supporters and the Clinton backers going after Richardson, Dodd, or Kucinich. What arguments would they use?

Are you wondering why Ive singled out the Democrats? Well, its because the Republican caucuses apparently are quieter events since each voter drops a secret ballot in a hat, the votes are counted, and thats that. Republicans like the one head, one vote method, believing it is more democratic because support for even an underdog is counted.

About 200,000 people or 10% of registered voters are predicted to participate in the caucuses in a bit more than two weeks and with polls showing an apparent surge for Mike Huckabee on the GOP side, and an edge for Barack Obama in the Democratic column, those first-in-the-nation neighbors will be the focus of the nation.

Its not often that a San Diego-based journalist gets to spend time with a United States ambassador to the United Nations, former or current. Now its happened to me twice.

The last time was a long face-to-face conversation with then-Ambassador Madeleine Albright when I hosted These Days on KPBS Radio in the late 90s. It was like talking with an old friend, even though I had never met her before. But we connected and saw each other again the next time that she came to San Diego.

This time, it was an equally long phone conversation with former Ambassador John Bolton, the long time aide in the Reagan, Bush Sr., and George W. Bush administrations who was appointed to the United Nations post by the younger Bush when the Senate stymied his confirmation with a filibuster. After 16 months at the U.N., he appointment was over and he decided against accepting another recess appointment from the president because, as he told me, he differed from the administrations policies on dealing with North Korea and Irans nuclear weapons development, and with the approach to the Arab-Israeli situation.

Ambassador Bolton is consistently described as being fiery, blunt speaking and even confrontational. He must have been on his best behavior because, aside from his clear love for Goldwater-style conservatism, he responded to my many questions in a rather balanced-manner, patiently and diplomatically.

Hes in San Diego to promote his new book, Surrender is Not An Option which, from the three chapters Ive read so far, will appeal to those who favor the right in foreign policy and will provide some fodder for those on the left.

KPBS broadcasts a debate between the Democratic presidential candidates Tuesday, Dec. 4 at 11 a.m., hosted by NPR and Iowa Public Radio a month before the Iowa Caucus. NPR invites the audience to participate in multiple forms, including submitting questions in advance, live blogging, and even using the audio that NPR will post online without restrictions.

Are presidential debates really debates? Or are they panel discussions? Certainly none of the presidential debates that have been mounted since 1976 resembles anything you learned in high school debate class. (1976 was the first since the 1960 Nixon-Kennedy showdown.) Debate is an umbrella term for a wide variety of methods of arguing, confronting, and establishing positions on topics or advocating points of view. None of these methods describes the current question-and-answer, audience participation, or emailed queries of presidential debates. Theres little opportunity for rebuttal in these formats.

The famous Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1858 pitted two candidates for U.S. Senate against each other in a series of seven formal debates in which both men defended their positions on the issues of the day, expounded their values, and demonstrated their rhetorical skills. Slavery was among the social problems with which they grappled and Abraham Lincolns skills combined with his high-minded, scholarly approach catapulted him to national prominence, and eventually, to the presidency. Could this happen again? Could a candidate show such promise in the current pseudo-debate format that he or she would be thrust into first place?

Which of the candidates is in a position to do what Lincoln did? Senator Hillary Clinton is widely considered the best debater, but she stumbled badly in October over a question about providing drivers licenses to illegal immigrants. Now, in the month before the Iowa caucus, the numbers indicate that Senator Barack Obama is leading Clinton in that state. Many are waiting to see if he has learned from past debates and forums when he struggled with the format's imposingly limited response times and even more limited rebuttals. After all, he was a professor, and academics are trained to hold forth for 50-minute lectures. One, or two, or even three-minute answers are next to impossible after years in the classroom.

Obamas changing fortunes in Iowa have attracted the surprising advice of President George W. Bushs former master political operative: Karl Rove. Rove teaches the ex-teacher how to be a better debater and campaigner, including finding ways to belittle Clinton, to show strength and to look her in the eye when confronting her. He also suggests that when Obama disagrees with Clinton, he be clear on what he does believe with yes or no answers. Now it remains to be seen if Obama takes Roves recommendations and if they work for him. After all, Rove is widely credited with orchestrating Bushs victories in 2000 and 2004, and some would have difficulty equating Bushs debating skills to those of Abraham Lincoln.

NPR is planning a Republican debate and will release the date once the candidates accept the invitation.

Its been a very long time since weve had a presidential nominating convention that made your heart race -- not because you despised the winning candidate, but because there was some suspense about who the winner might be. In fact, the possibility that a convention vote would go past the first ballot is so rare that the last time this happened for the Republicans was in 1948 when New Yorks Governor Thomas Dewey was nominated on the third ballot over Ohio Senator Robert Taft and former Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen.

The Democrats had their last excitement in 1952 when it took three ballots to nominate scholarly Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson who defeated several experienced politicians including Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver, New York Governor Averell Harriman and Georgia Senator Richard Russell. Stevenson came into the convention not as a candidate, but emerged as the winner, became the presidential nominee again in 1956, and was never elected to the presidency.

Those indeed were exciting times, with passionate, seemingly heartfelt speeches coming from the delegations, powerful political figures working behind the scenes, and with a real sense that the decisions were made at those events by people chosen to play the game of politics for the rest of us.

But things changed in the late 1960s with the unprecedented national fury over the Vietnam War, the assassination of major public figures, and especially, the 1968 chaotic Democratic Convention which sparked violence in the streets of Chicago. With no procedures for nominating presidential candidates embedded in the U.S. Constitution, the political parties reformed the process by turning to the voters, rather than to their own leaders to choose the nominees for president.

The states turned to the caucuses and the primaries in the 1970s and moved them earlier and earlier in order to influence the selection of nominees. Heres the paradox: As the public developed more of a voice through those early votes, the national nominating conventions became less important. For the last 35 years, weve mostly known who the nominee will be when the conventions began.

Im hoping things will change in 2008. Ill be at both conventions and I want them to be more than glorified announcements of the nominees. And theres the chance that I might get what Im hoping for. If the Iowa Caucus surprises the nation by selecting an Obama or a Huckabee, for example, perhaps well see a sense of adventure, rather than inevitability, permeate the nations primary voters. And then we might have a couple of riveting conventions worthy of our time and attention, instead of The Late Show.

You better have a restful, tame New Years Eve celebration this year. Just three days into 2008 and just as you are recovering from your revelries (assuming you dont heed this warning), youll be assaulted by the results of the first official step in the march toward the Presidential nomination. The Iowa Caucus, the First in the Nation test for presidential candidates since 1976, will be held earlier than ever before. Both the Democrats and Republicans in the Buckeye State are going for January 3, 2008.

To retain that first distinction, Iowa party officials were forced to move the date ahead by several weeks. Maneuvering had begun in other states to be the first to have a presidential primary, or, at the very least, to have an early enough primary to influence the choice of nominee. New Hampshire was pushing hard to stay ahead of any other primary, even while South Carolina and Michigan were talking about January 15th. The chess game had begun, and Iowa responded with that oh-so-early caucus. Then theres Super Duper Tuesday, when California is joined by Florida, Illinois, Texas and 15 other states to create the February 5th primary to influence who will emerge as the front runners.

But back to Iowa where registered Republicans and Democrats convene in schools, public buildings, or private homes within their precincts to gather as neighbors and signal their preferences. Republicans actually place their votes in a hat. Democrats stand in preference groups for their candidates. So whats so exciting about this? Why should the rest of the nation care about such a quaint process? Well, Iowans have had a pretty good record of forecasting the eventual nominees during the last 30 years. In five out of nine races, Democrats correctly chose John Kerry, Al Gore, Bill Clinton (who ran unopposed), Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter. Republicans had an easier time of it since George W. Bush, his father, and Ronald Reagan each ran unopposed one time. In addition, the GOP Iowans selected Bob Dole and Gerald Ford months before they won their parties nominations.

The Iowa Caucus results, of course, are released to the media even before the precinct results move on to the county and state conventions where delegates are selected to attend and vote in the national conventions. And its that first victory, ballyhooed by the press, that could become the new reality. If Clinton is bested by Obama or Edwards or if Dodd or Romney push Giuliani out of first place, could the current front runners be displaced and could a new contest form in the rush of primaries?

So, as you plan on how you will say goodbye to 2007 and greet 2008, do keep in mind that more could change in the early days of the new year than the numbers on your calendar, and youll want to be ready -- just in case.

When one thinks of the usual stepping stones to political advancement, the office of State Insurance Commissioner doesnt immediately come to mind. But in California, that may all be changing, thanks in part to two savvy, ambitious men taking full political advantage of tragedy. For a quick parallel, consider how Rudy Guiliani promoted his response to Sept. 11 into his current run for president of the United States.

Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, a Democrat, made his mark in California politics as the first commissioner of insurance in 1990. But he rushed into a bid to become governor after one term and lost in the primary. He was elected insurance commissioner again in the 2002 elections, succeeding Chuck Quackenbush who resigned in June 2000 after being accused of collecting hundreds of thousands in campaign contributions from insurance companies and using campaign funds for personal reasons.

Just seven months into his term, Garamendi again decided to run for governor in the recall election to replace Gray Davis in 2003. Within two days, he withdrew in favor of Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. Just months later, the 2003 Cedar wildfire ravaged San Diego and Garamendi rushed in to do battle with insurance companies, adjusters and perpetrators of fraud who were bilking the fire victims. Garamendis name became synonymous with action, and when he decided to take another step toward the governors seat by running for lieutenant governor in 2006, he picked up 49% of the vote to 45% for Tom McClintock. He was on his way to his third bid to be governor, this time boosted by his well-publicized activity on behalf of fire victims.

Now comes little known Republican Steve Poizner, who succeeded Garamendi as insurance commissioner. He is just a few months into his first elected office and finds himself grappling with the momentous wildfires that have again struck California. With almost no political experience under his belt, he grabbed the ball when the wildfires came and formed task forces to discourage fraud and to help the victims with insurance companies. He has been relentlessly visible in San Diego since the first days of the fires, promising help with every step of the rebuilding ordeal and providing phone numbers and Web sites. He has teamed up with the D.A. and the sheriff and his name is becoming familiar. At age 50, hes carving out his political career, and his current experience is acting as his potential launch pad.

Its not inconceivable that some future election for governor of California could see two former insurance commissioners competing to become the political leader of the state.